Turkey and Russia could enter into armed conflict in 2021, according to the Western media, according to which the confrontation could take place in Syria, Libya or even on the Russian borders.
According to the Foreign Policy report: “Russia and Turkey are not at war, but often support opposing sides as is the case in Syria and Libya. Thus, the two countries are vying for power in the Caucasus. The March 2020 agreement between Moscow and Ankara put an end to the fighting in Idlib, the last rebel stronghold in northwest Syria, and showed how much both sides need each other. Russia expects Turkey to enforce the ceasefire in Idlib. Ankara recognizes that another Syrian army offensive, which could lead to a massive influx of hundreds of thousands of Syrians into Turkey, depends on Russian air support. But the status quo is disappointing: the war in Syria is not yet over, and another offensive in Idlib with Russian support remains possible. »
Yet in Libya, a conflict between Russia and Turkey is considered unlikely. Officially the Russian army is not present in the country, although the Libyan national army actively uses Russian services and weapons.
The Caucasus is another region where a conflict between Turkey and Russia is possible. For tensions persist in Karabakh and any provocation could lead to new attacks by Azerbaijan and Turkey against the rest of the NKR (self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic), not to mention the fact that the army of several thousand Turkish soldiers is only 10 kilometers from the border with Armenia.
Russia and Turkey were also involved in the recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia has a military alliance with Armenia, but avoided choosing a side in this conflict, which led to a ceasefire that ended the fighting. Turkey has provided diplomatic and military support to Azerbaijan with its drones and Israeli drones that have targeted Armenia’s air defense positions.
At the same time, in recent months, relations between Turkey and Russia have cooled seriously, although there is no real reason for confrontation.
by Xavier Cuesta – European Correspondent – TN