A few days after the announcement of the normalization of relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel, Saudi officials, who had not taken a clear position on this issue, broke their silence. “Saudi Arabia will not enter into any agreement until Israel reaches a peace agreement with the Palestinians,” said Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan.
However, by analyzing the available evidence and what has happened in recent months, it can be predicted that Saudi Arabia will also announce the normalization of relations with Israel in the short term – according to US officials – in the medium term – if Arab world criticism subsides. The facts in the realization of such a prediction are as follows:
- Allowing the Israeli government to its citizens to travel to Saudi Arabia in recent months; Although Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, did not give such permission to its citizens and remained silent about it, it and did not react to the news and it seem that it does not have much of a problem with it.
- Preparing Cultural-propaganda grounds for accepting Israel; For example, on the occasion of the beginning of Ramadan this year, Saudi Arabia aired two series every night on the MBC satellite network, the script of which was to promote the normalization of relations with Israel, as well as the lives of Jews living in the Arabian Gulf.
- {As mentioned in the previous article}, Haim Saban, an Israeli-American businessman who played a constructive role in the UAE-Israel agreement, has close ties to Gulf Arab officials on the one hand and has close relations with influential White House figures such as Jared Kushner on the other hand. It is very likely that this multilateral personal relationship will extend to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman also. This claim is significant because Bin Salman also has a close personal relationship with Jared Kushner, and in recent years has sought to influence the White House and Donald Trump through him on a variety of issues. This issue has been repeatedly mentioned by world-famous news-analytical sites on various topics from the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi to the oil war crisis between Saudi Arabia and Russia in recent months. Therefore, it is very probable that bin Salman was not only directly involved in the UAE-Israel agreement, but Muhammad bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi went so far with his coordination and knowledge.
Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia will face two challenges in announcing the normalization of relations with Israel, although the author of these lines believes that the Saudis will eventually join this or a similar agreement: first, possible violate of the agreement and pursue the plan of the annexation of the West Bank by Israel, and second, the conservatism of King Salman. The first issue is the main concern of the Arab states in joining this agreement, and the silence of the White House deepens this issue even more. Secondly, it should not be overlooked that bin Salman has more limitations in this decision than bin Zayed. Regardless of the importance and weight of Saudi Arabia compared to the UAE, as one of the main contenders for the leadership of the Arab world and the custodian of the two holy shrines, he desperately needs the support of his father, King Salman to the abandonment of the conservative approaches. The Saudi king seems to have a mission for himself to maintain the traditional policy of the Palestinian cause or at least to hide his connection with Israel; The Crown Prince, on the other hand, is reckless in this regard and is more inclined to strengthen alliances with Tel Aviv and Washington against Tehran. In this regard, in recent months, Israeli military and security officials, including Gaddy Eisenkot, Chief of General Staff, have spoken of Israel’s readiness for an intelligence-security partnership with Saudi Arabia against Iran. It is worth mentioning that the support and relations between Saudi Arabia and the Zionist regime are not limited to military and security fields and have spread to other fields as well. Finally, it can be said that Saudi Arabia will follow the same path as the UAE, albeit with more complexities in the short or medium term. In this regard, it can be said that the UAE is only the forerunner and paving the way for the beginning of a new path in the relations between the Arab states, especially the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, with Israel.